Tanzania 2025 Elections Under Pressure: Intelligence Analysis of the Catholic Church’s Call to Release Tundu Lissu
Executive Summary
On April 20, 2025, during the Easter Vigil Mass in Lindi, the President of the Tanzania Episcopal Conference (TEC), Bishop Wolfgang Pisa, issued a direct and rare public appeal urging the Tanzanian government to release all political detainees arrested for advocating electoral reforms. The statement, though rooted in moral and spiritual grounds, is likely to influence political calculations ahead of Tanzania's general elections scheduled for October 2025. Of particular concern is the fate of CHADEMA national chairman Tundu Lissu, who remains in detention and, according to his international legal representative, is being held in solitary confinement under harsh conditions. The TEC’s intervention represents a significant development in the convergence of moral authority, civil liberties advocacy, and political accountability.
This intelligence brief, authored by regional security analyst Evarist Chahali, evaluates the strategic implications of the Catholic Church’s involvement and forecasts possible scenarios based on emerging indicators.
Context and Background
Tundu Lissu, a key opposition leader and former presidential candidate, was arrested on April 9, 2025, while mobilising public support for the "No Reforms, No Election" campaign in Mbinga District, Ruvuma Region. His arrest, followed by treason charges, drew both domestic and international condemnation.
While political opposition figures and civil society organisations have consistently demanded his release, the involvement of the Catholic Church—an institution with considerable influence over Tanzanian public life—marks an escalation in moral and institutional pressure.
Key Points from the TEC Statement
Urgent Electoral Reforms: Bishop Pisa called on the government to urgently engage stakeholders to amend the electoral system ahead of the October 2025 elections.
Moral Framing of Peace and Justice: The bishop questioned the definition of peace, arguing that suppressing dissent while avoiding dialogue is itself a threat to national harmony.
Call for Unconditional Release: The TEC explicitly demanded the unconditional release of all opposition leaders arrested for calling for electoral reforms.
Indictment of Authoritarian Practices: The homily indirectly criticised the government's tendency to criminalise dissent, calling for an end to the harassment and detention of political actors.